So here we go - another general election and the inevitable period of uncertainty in the housing market.
General Elections, traditionally held in May or June, have historically had the effect of dampening the usual Spring rise in the housing market. Buyers do not like instability and an Election brings a further level of uncertainty. However, there is also evidence to suggest that transaction levels pick up in the immediate aftermath of the vote.
During three of the last five Election years, the Spring bounce in transaction levels nationally has been tempered. In 2015 (the most recent Election year) sales in the run-up to the vote during March and April were 9.2% lower than might have been expected.
However, with the unexpected timing and short run up the Election on 8th June, it is not clear whether buyers, already part way through the conveyancing process, will put the brakes on transactions.
The pick-up in transactions after Elections has traditionally begun almost straight away. Over the last five Election years, sales in the two months after the Election have increased, on average, by 18.1% compared to the previous two months. This compares to a rise of 13.4% during the same period in non-Election years. The pick-up in 2015 was even more pronounced. Sales in the two months after the Election rose by 21.2%.
The economy also has an affect with growth in the UK economy estimated to have been just 0.3% in the first three months of 2017. This is the slowest growth rate in a year, according to official figures released by the Office for National Statistics. Economists had been expecting growth of 0.4%, compared to 0.7% in the final quarter of 2016.
Inflation remained at 2.3% in March, the same rate as in February. However, latest forecasts by the Treasury anticipate inflation will rise to 3.0% by the end of 2017 before falling back to 2.5% over 2018.
Economic growth across the UK is expected to be 1.7% during 2017, falling to 1.4% in 2018 according to the latest forecasts released by the Treasury. This follows the release of new data by the IMF who upgraded its forecast for the UK to 2.0%, making the UK the second fastest-growing advanced economy across the globe after the US.
The price of property coming to market has hit a record high of £313,655 in April according to Rightmove, up 1.1% (+£3,547) on March. However, this is lower than the usual spring-boost of 1.6% and the annual pace of increase is now just 2.2% , its lowest since April 2013. Growth is being driven by the first-time buyer sector, up 6.5% annually to new record of £194,881.
Annual house price growth across the UK's top 20 cities was 6.4% in March, slightly higher than the UK as a whole (5.7%) according to Hometrack. Growth across UK cities during Q1 2017 was 3.5%, the highest quarterly increase for 3 years with Birmingham and Manchester recording growth of over 8%, and Bristol 7.3%.
So what about the housing market in Exeter.
Over the last 12 full months there have been 6,493 sales in Exeter. This is 6% down change on the previous 12 month period. The average sales price was £236,347.
The top transaction in Exeter during the last 3 months was £1,150.00.
Average prices for flats are at £145,460 . for terraced houses £208,766 . for Semi Detached £230,462 and for detached £339,560.
Locally house prices have grown in the last year by 6% and over the last 5 years by 19% so those investors looking for capital growth in property, Exeter is still a good bet.
I'm always happy to discuss any aspect of the local housing market so feel free to call or email me. Tel 01392 254488 or email firstname.lastname@example.org